Chelsea suffered their first defeat under Guus Hiddink, when going down 1-2 away at Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League last Tuesday.  Previous to this they thrashed Newcastle 5-1 at Stamford Bridge, and this victory sent the blues up to 12th place on 33 points. Chelsea’s recent Premier League home form reads a reasonable W7, D4, L4.

To get to this stage Chelsea beat Scunthorpe 2-0 at home and Milton Keynes Dons 5-1 away. When hosting the Top 6 Premier League sides their record reads a very positive looking W6, D1, L3 and here Chelsea can be backed at around 2.10.

The recent head-to-head record at Stamford Bridge in all competitions favours the home side and reads Chelsea 2 Wins, 2 Draws and Manchester City 1 win.

The draw can be backed at around 3.65 and this looks priced about right.

Manchester City suffered their 2nd home defeat on the bounce when going down 1-2 to fellow title challengers Spurs. This defeat left Manuel Pellegrini’s side in 4th place on 47 points, which is now 6 points behind leaders Leicester. Manchester city’s recent Premier League away form reads W6, D5, L4.

City have reached this stage of the competition by beating Premier League strugglers Norwich 3-0 & Aston Villa 4-0, both of these ties were away from home. When visiting mid table sides in the Premier League, City’s record reads a positive looking W6, D3,L1 and here they can be backed at around a value looking 3.65. There is the option to keep the draw on your side and City can be backed +0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.10.

As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest that Overs is the play. 5 of Chelsea’s last 6 home matches have seen at least 3 goals scored and they have also conceded in 13 of their last 16 home matches. In the case of Manchester City 10 of their last 15 away games have seen 3 or more goals. My ratings also suggest value in Overs and Over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.92.

This is a very good match up and my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. For my trade I am siding with the away side. There is no question Chelsea have improved in recent matches. Also here Pellegrini has intimated that due to their Champions League match away at Kiev on the Wednesday night, they may field a weakened squad.  Obviously the above factors have to be taken into account. However despite the above Chelsea offer no value here and when we look at their Premier League home form this season Chelsea have only won 5 home games this season and 4 of these victories came against sides who are now occupying the bottom 4 places. So my recommended trade is Manchester City +0,0/0.5 goals at around 2.10.