Liverpool are coming into this match in very good form. Jürgen Klopp's side have won 5 of their last 7 Premier League matches and they also won a dramatic game against Dortmund last week to qualify for the Europa League semi-finals. After defeating Bournemouth 2-1 last Sunday, Liverpool now sit in 8th place on 51 points, and they are now only 5 points behind 5th place Man United, with a game in hand. Liverpool's recent home record reads a decent-looking W6, D6, L3.
When hosting the mid-table sides, their record again reads a mixed W4, D3, L3, and Liverpool can be backed at around 1.70 which looks priced far too low.
The recent head-to-head record at Anfield slightly favours the home side and reads Liverpool 2 Wins, 3 Draws, and Everton 0 Wins.
The draw can be backed at around 4.00 and this looks to offer some decent value.
Effectively, Everton's Premier League season is over. After drawing at home with Southampton at the weekend, Everton have now not won in 6 league matches. Currently, Everton sit in 11th place on 41 points. Despite this poor position, Everton are resilient away from home and their recent away record reads W4, D9, L2.
When visiting top half sides, Everton's away record reads a resilient W2, D4, L4, and indeed they have only lost this season at the Emirates and Old Trafford. Here Everton can be backed at around 5.30. If you do fancy the Toffees to do well then you can keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the +0.5/1.0 handicap at around a value-looking 2.05.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned, then there is a leaning towards the unders. When looking at the last 10 home and away matches against similar opposition for both sides, we can see that in the 20 matches, 3 have seen 4 or more goals, 7 matches have seen 3 goals, whilst 12 matches have seen 2 goals or less. My ratings suggest that there is some small value in backing under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.98.
Team News
Jurgen Klopp is expected to make changes following the 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Sunday, though Daniel Sturridge could keep his place in attack with Christian Benteke sidelined and Divock Origi a doubt. Jordan Henderson and Emre Can are both ruled out for the hosts, with Lucas Leiva and Joe Allen expected to protect the defence. Joe Gomez, Danny Ings, and Kolo Toure all miss out.
Tom Cleverley, Phil Jagielka, Aaron Lennon, and Leighton Baines are all doubts for the Toffees and will all be assessed closer to Wednesday's kick off. Roberto Martinez is without injured trio Seamus Coleman, Tony Hibbert, and Tyias Browning, with teenage defender Callum Connolly in line for his first Premier League start. James McCarthy, Ross Barkley, and Romelu Lukaku should all start for the Toffees here, with the former returning from suspension.
Prediction
This is such a tricky game to analyse as you have to work out the priorities for both teams. Although this is a Merseyside derby, Everton will almost certainly have one eye on their FA Cup semi-final taking place on Saturday. In the case of Liverpool, although they will almost certainly prioritise the Europa League, they are still very much in with a chance of qualifying for European football. Because of the above, Everton look very good value on the handicap, and you have to go back 21 away games to find the last time they lost by 2 or more goals. However, I believe Liverpool will be the keener of the 2 sides. For my trade, I am turning to goal line. When visiting the top half sides, only 1 of Everton’s last 20 away games have seen 4 or more goals, whilst 7 of their last 10 away against the top half have seen 2 goals or less. So my recommended trade for this game is under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.98.